" Based on our experience in Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan some projections can be made about our ability to deal with the problems we will face over the medium term. "

Robert Barry, a man who has as much experience with nation-building as anybody else in the world (he coordinated US assistance to Eastern Europe in the wake of Communism and was the head of the OSCE Mission to Bosnia and Herzegovina), has placed yet another wake-up call to the Bush Administration. Their deep slumber, and what appears to be a nearly complete lack of concrete planning, is "Why we are not prepared to win the peace in Iraq".

He begins with the following outline and then goes on to give the really bad news: the peace is winnable with planning, but we're not planning to win. The section on "Governance" is of particular interest.

" The increasingly ambitious agenda for post-Saddam Iraq now includes disarmament, regime change, democracy in Iraq and a safer world for all. What is missing is any realistic discussion of the sacrifices that will be required to produce this kind of rosy scenario. President Bush and Prime Minister Blair seem determined to avoid discussing the costs and burdens of defeating Saddam Hussein and rebuilding the country afterwards until after a decision to go to war has been made. This creates a serious risk that our publics and parliaments will decline to shoulder the burdens of victory. Losing the peace in Iraq may carry greater risks than attempting to contain Saddam Hussein. We need to look carefully at plans for peace before the die is cast for war.

" The usual argument for not being drawn into a discussion about what will be needed to win the peace is that the future is too difficult to predict. Yet the Pentagon is quite capable of juggling multiple sets of war plans, and the major outlines of challenges presented by an occupation of Iraq are clear. Initially at least it may require as many troops to secure Iraq as to defeat Saddam. Some occupation forces may have to remain for five to ten years.

" Responsibility for the civil administration of Iraq will fall largely on the US at first, and there may have to be an international civil presence there for a decade. The creation of a ‘democratic Iraq within its current borders’ is a long-range goal, not an instant product of victory over Saddam.
There will be a major humanitarian crisis that we are not yet well prepared to deal with.

" Iraqi oil revenues will first go to providing food and humanitarian aid, and what is left over will not pay for Iraqi reconstruction. Getting others to help pay to clean up after a war they have opposed is going to be harder than has been acknowledged. "

The emphasis in the first paragraph is mine and is the issue that will haunt all future American dreams of glory as the Third Punic War haunted republican Rome's.