A study I'll have to track down in order to give it an appropriate citation has shown that the countries most likely to go to war, especially civil war, are those that have most recently been in one. The post-conflict challenge is to minimize flare-ups of violence. Too many and the violence can become widespread and ongoing.
Occupiers are caught in a strange, and unhappy, position. They fill the position of power left empty by having ousted the previous regime. They find themselves responsible - and held responsible - for the exercise (or lack thereof) of that power. You can be damned for doing too much, and damned for doing too little, until you are convinced that the country is populated by devils and that it is hell on earth.
In a valuable article, Neil Swidey looks at "Tipping Points - how military occupations go sour" in this week's Boston Globe Ideas.
" In nearly every occupation, there is a tipping point-a defining incident that crystallizes the popular reception of the occupier. ... A tipping point is a concept drawn from epidemiology, where it describes the moment at which an infectious disease becomes a public health crisis. The idea is that small changes will have little or no effect on a system until a critical mass is reached. Then just one additional small change ''tips'' the system, producing dramatic consequences. "
Tipping points, or "flashpoints" as they are often called in conflict studies, do not carve out destiny in stone. But they do change - and limit - the options for future action.
Posted by Martial