Conflict Impact Analysis Primer, V: The Things You Bring

As I have suggested, sleeping on something I've written is not always the best policy. Nearly three months between posts in a series is definitely not the best policy.

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Part I: Introduction
Part II: Entering the Context of Conflict
Part III: The Two "Realities" of Conflict
Part IV: You Have an Impact on All Factors
Part V: The Things You Bring
Part VI: How You Do Your Work Matters as Much as What You Do
Part VII: The Devil is in the Details
Part VIII: There Are Always Options

Part V: The Things You Bring

In order to perform analysis, first you need to gather information.

Context (and impact) analysis can be done well, but in order to do so there are two boundaries that must be negotiated: time and information. You can always gather more information, there is always something else to learn and not enough time to learn it in, but in order for an analysis to be useful it also has to be timely.

In many situations, analysis must be done quickly, but it must still be done rigorously. The analyst (or team) must reconcile speed with depth; on the one hand, performing an adequate analysis quickly enough to guide policy, and on the other, conducting an exploration that gathers enough information to, in fact, be useful.

Everyone who has tried to analyze a changing and volatile situation has run up against this. As a result, the analysis either shudders to a halt too soon, without adequate information to suggest effective action, or else it extends into the indefinite future with no clear limits and no clear end, with the consequence that too much information is collected without any ordering principle and action is put off. How is it possible to achieve enough depth, while not getting bogged down the wealth of detail?

Or, to put it another way: How do you know when to stop?

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Lesson #4: Resource Transfers

When an organization enters a context of conflict it is going there for a reason. There might be a business opportunity that cannot be pursued elsewhere (e.g. oil or mineral extraction), there might be people in desperate need of assistance, a government might find their geo-political interests demand involvement of some sort.

Each type of involvement brings in resources. These resources can be quite varied, ranging from money, jobs, food, training, people, etc. The resources brought in will become a part of the context of the conflict, and will, therefore, have some sort of impact on the conflict. Whether this impact will be negative, exacerbating the tensions, or positive, helping to dampen tensions, depends both on the form of the resources themselves (what, precisely, they are) and the mechanisms of their distribution.

Following are five broad categories of impact that resources have on the context of conflict.

First, there is Theft. Resources can be stolen. In addition to the general sense of lawlessness that contributes to an overall sense of tension, theft can directly transfer resources to warring parties for their own use. Theft often directly supports the violence. (Governments and legitimate authorities can also "steal" or transfer resources. Bribes, un-negotiated taxes, simple appropriation, all are common in contexts of conflict.)

Second, there are Market Effects. Resources brought in from outside will have an impact on wages, prices, and profits. Employment patterns can be changed in destabilizing ways: unemployment can increase the pool of people available to fight, as well as providing people with a grievance about which to fight (bringing in the wrong food aid can negatively impact agricultural production). The value of some items or services can shift, attracting more people (bodyguard work, with a sideline in kidnapping; renting stolen vehicles).

Third, there are Distribution Effects. Distributing resources to beneficiaries so that the allocation mirrors a cleavage in the society will increase tensions (offering jobs to just one ethnic group, setting up refugee repatriation efforts that target just one group, placing a health clinic on one side of the battle lines, etc.).

Fourth, there are Substitution Effects. Resources brought in from the outside can substitute for internal resources, thereby freeing up the internal resources for other uses. When assistance agencies take over providing health care, then local authorities no longer need to use their resources (money, medicine, and trained personnel) in the health system. In a conflict, the money and medicine "freed" can be redirected to the fighters. It is even possible to completely confound the idea that public health (education, waste disposal) is a responsibility of the government.

Fifth, there are Legitimacy Effects. Resources represent power. Authorities who are seen to be providing resources will increase their legitimacy. When bringing resources into complex situations, we need to be especially aware of this aspect and to think about whether or not we wish to increase a particular legitimacy. One hard and fast rule is that you always have to work with the local authorities. You cannot avoid them. But how you work with them is something you have control over.

These five categories have been presented in their negative aspect, but these mechanisms of impact can work positively as well. Figuring out how to avoid theft can lead toward solutions for a larger lawlessness and even toward the rule of law. Understanding that there will be effects on the market can help organizations to offer peaceful opportunities to people caught up in conflict. Creative distribution can bring groups together, rather than pushing them apart. Engaging authorities (instead of trying to ignore or bypass them) and involving their resources in the process can avoid substitution and can help spread responsibility and legitimacy.

The above categories represent a way of thinking about working in conflicts. If you are there, you have brought in resources. It is imperative to think about the impacts those resources will have, even - and in particular - the broader impacts on the conflict itself.

Posted by Martial