FutureMAP, the Pentagon's Dead Pool, is itself dead. I have seen the range of outrage, from those who think we should do anything we can do, to those who found the idea in and of itself grotesque. I have even seen an objection suggesting that terrorists would be steered away from the targets getting the most attention by "investors".
I have not, however, seen anyone mention what to me is the clearest reason for smothering FutureMAP in its crib. This program was going to be the gravest threat to national security since the Russians offered to show us their technique for making glass in bulk (and curiously similar to ours it was too...).
Imagine, a thousand, ten thousand, a hundred thousand geeks with more pet theories than sense, many of whom have advanced technical degrees. Imagine them analyzing the security infrastructure of the United States. Imagine them trying on the shoes of terrorists, muttering softly to themselves, "what would I do?" Imagine them debating scenario after scenario with each other, pulling down and building up, and making each one better, faster, stronger. What would you have besides the blogging community?
Open Source Terror Planning.
In the weeks after 9/11, my colleagues and I sat around and discussed the likely next steps of the world's terror groups. And we know a thing or two about conflict and about how to increase levels of violence. Fortunately, none of our worst cases came true, but there were a few places we didn't go for several weeks. Why should we be rewarded for our thinking up and disseminating scenarios of horror - especially when we get our reward after the terror attack we designed happens?
Maybe all the information about security and infrastructure is easily accessible already. But maybe the terrorists won't actually think of a brilliant target and how to attack it until we give them the idea.
. . .
Why, yes, I have read DARPA's outline of FutureMAP (pp 68-69), and, yes, I know that these "markets" weren't planned to be open to the public. Why should I (a) let the facts stand in the way of a fair rant, or (b) expect the markets to stay closed?
Posted by Martial