Where the bombing of the UN offices in Baghdad filled me with weary sadness, the bombing of the Ali mosque in Najaf suggests an opportunity. Sometimes an act of terror, rather than perpetuating a spiral of violence, stops everyone and lets them off the wheel.
Many (perhaps most) commenters choose to interpret the rash of recent high profile bombings as demonstrating that security in Iraq is non-existent. However, it is far safer to say merely that the ability of US forces to provide security is what has been called into question. There are militias patrolling some parts of some cities. Again, this is being interpreted as a breakdown in security. It is also possible, and several Iraqis have suggested precisely this, that these efforts are the only thing that can assure security.
The bombers, I think, are making the same mistake that Western analysts are making, which is that the ability of the US to provide security is the only security which matters. Given the rhetoric coming from the Shi'a in Najaf and around Iraq, I would be careful not to ascribe overmuch power to Al Qaeda or Baath forces. They can perhaps pull off a few major bombings, but they cannot operate with complete impunity and they are vastly outnumbered by people who are quite prepared to mete out justice of a sort.
The challenge is not for the US to provide security. The challenge is to find ways to bring the militias into systems where their legitimacy can be assured. Can they be trained? How long will the training take? How many trainers from what countries are needed? Can the allegiance of the militias be shifted to the nascent state and away from the personalities who currently control them? Can the personalities be convinced that this is in their own interest?
All of these are very great challenges. But they rely on Iraqis and their capacities instead of shoving them aside as though they have no role to play in their own country.
. . .
(Billmon in particular disagrees - forcefully - with my thoughts here.)
Posted by Martial