I really should blog more of the conversations in my office.
For example, several moons ago when the Iraqi army was disbanded, we asked each other what this meant in terms of the situation. The consensus around our table was that there were many tensions in Iraq and the disbanding of the army would only serve to heighten them. We agreed that you can't put 300,000 people out of work and expect anything good. We also agreed that you can't reduce options for 300,000 armed people and expect anything good. In other words: the level of violence was about to go up. Part of the problem - for us and our communication strategies - was this seemed so obvious that it hardly seemed relevant to bring it into wider discussion.
So, in the spirit of trying to scare the beejesus out of you, my friends, I offer this recent gem from my office:
As I was leaving on my most recent trip, headed off to the Middle East, one of my colleagues suggested that I check the date of the International Atomic Energy Agency's deadline for Iran. She suggested that if my trip overlapped with that date, I ought to be prepared for the security crackdown that would follow the Israeli bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities. The deadline was November 24th - tomorrow - and, thankfully, I was scheduled to be home before then.
Iran has since agreed to a three month suspension of their uranium enrichment program. The new "deadline" is the end of February - unless it is decided in Washington and Tel Aviv to preempt Tehran's next temporary suspension - a preemption of the preemption, if you will.
This is not to say that Israel will, absolutely for sure, bomb Iran's nuclear facilities, but around here we think there's a strong likelihood. Sorry.
Posted by Martial