An uprising nourished by Western aid
Bollocks. From what I’ve read about the “revolution” in Kyrgyzstan, the rough and ready mobs that tossed out the President wouldn’t know a civil society program if it bit them in the ass.
This is exactly the kind of research that I do: what works and what doesn’t in promoting social change. No one knows what works.1 If we did, we’d do a better job.
All the quotes in the article are based upon wishful thinking and untested theories of social change. Right now, they are just throwing things at the wall and hoping that they stick. Of course, people will say that their programs had an impact; they want to keep the funds coming. And, who knows, it might work . . .
Most civil society programs do have an impact, but only on the people who are directly involved in them. Newspapers, for example, are a very good thing, but the evidence that they incite action is very thin.2 In order to evaluate the “causes” of the uprising, you need to talk to the guys who rose up. Did they read the newspaper? Why the hell were they on the streets? Find the links between the programs and the actions – find any links at all - and maybe you’ll have something.
. . .
1 That isn't entirely true, but what works is context specific. There is no general package of programs for democratization, even though we implement as though there is.
2 Most of what appears to be newspapers encouraging action is actually political organization that uses a particular newspaper to communicate. The organization of people has to happen first before the newspaper's channel works to motivate action. To the best of my knowledge, that wasn't happening in Kyrgystan.
Posted by Martial