You are Iran.
You have been identified by the current US Administration as “evil”. You’ve’ heard a lot of saber rattling rhetoric over the years from this Administration and its intellectuals. You’re hearing an escalation of that rhetoric right now in the run up to an American election.
The American election might determine if the current US Administration can pursue its hostility toward you or if it will be forced to defend itself at home. Would the current US Administration try to start a war with you as a way of playing the nationalism card and winning the elections?
You’ve watched how the propaganda against Iraq was developed. You see similar techniques and storylines being developed against you.
You have a pretty good sense of the capabilities of the US military having watched them up close for the past three years. You are pretty sure that even weakened they can demolish a huge amount of your army. You aren’t positive you can win on the battlefield, but you know you can win any aftermath. You also know that the generals in the US know all that.
Would they use nuclear weapons? Would they simply overwhelm you with their cruise missiles and bombers, destroy your armor and artillery, target a few scientific sites with bunker busters or special ops, and then declare victory? The former would surely be insane, but you can’t afford the latter either. They aren’t going to invade in any strength, but they are going to bomb the shit of you.
How do you prevent that war from happening?
. . .
I don't know about you, but if I was Iran I think I'd try to beat the Bush Administration before it attacked me. In order to do that, I'd need to have an impact on the elections. The feedback mechanism to the American electorate is the US military in Iraq. If I want to beat the Bush Administration, I have to beat the US military in a way which keeps them from counterattacking.
I'd have to be careful. I wouldn't want to beat the US military too soon. If I beat it by the summer, the fall would be time enough for an Administration propaganda counterattack, whipping up the electorate at the defeat and inflamming it with the need for a victory at whatever cost. I think I'd be in trouble then.
Too late would be, well, too late. I'd have to time it so that the defeat came at the precise moment that would do the most electoral damage. Do I have enough control to time it right? Do I have enough knowledge to time it right?
How would I defeat the US military? I'd set the stage for a general uprising. I'd make sure there was a rising overall violence, with some dramatic moments providing triggers for spikes. I'd also promise stability, milk, and honey once the US is gone.
. . .
There is no such thing as random violence in a war. Targets of violence may be chosen opportunistically and ignorant young men may be encouraged to cause trouble, but the violence serves a purpose. There are people planning the violence in Iraq.
All the factions in Iraq have been waging a war of opportunity against each other for at least the past two years. Poke your head up too high and the US is likely to shoot it off, but pick your time and place and you can get away with murder. The level of violence in Iraq is extraordinary, averaging at a minimum 1000 civilians killed/month in war related violence.
They've been beating the hell out of each other below our radar. They are desperate to know how well the other guys fight because they want to be prepared when the US does eventually leave.
Posted by Martial