Last spring, five people from MSF were killed in northwestern Afghanistan. The media rushed in to tell us that the Taliban were to blame. I was skeptical of that at the time, decrying the reflex to find the Taliban under every rock and behind every act of violence. Using the Taliban in that way was an all too convenient screen for other agendas, but no less murderous. Failing to address the real situation only serves to make it more dangerous and more resistant to change.

This article wraps up the current state of the story. It wasn’t the Taliban.

(I should add that I was told Hajji Yacoub was the chief suspect months ago. The humanitarian worker grapevine does its best to keep us out of harm’s way and Badghis has been tagged as dangerous because of the local actors.)

An uprising nourished by Western aid

Bollocks. From what I’ve read about the “revolution” in Kyrgyzstan, the rough and ready mobs that tossed out the President wouldn’t know a civil society program if it bit them in the ass.

This is exactly the kind of research that I do: what works and what doesn’t in promoting social change. No one knows what works.¹ If we did, we’d do a better job.

All the quotes in the article are based upon wishful thinking and untested theories of social change. Right now, they are just throwing things at the wall and hoping that they stick. Of course, people will say that their programs had an impact; they want to keep the funds coming. And, who knows, it might work . . .

Most civil society programs do have an impact, but only on the people who are directly involved in them. Newspapers, for example, are a very good thing, but the evidence that they incite action is very thin.² In order to evaluate the “causes” of the uprising, you need to talk to the guys who rose up. Did they read the newspaper? Why the hell were they on the streets? Find the links between the programs and the actions – find any links at all - and maybe you’ll have something.

. . .

¹ That isn't entirely true, but what works is context specific. There is no general package of programs for democratization, even though we implement as though there is.

² Most of what appears to be newspapers encouraging action is actually political organization that uses a particular newspaper to communicate. The organization of people has to happen first before the newspaper's channel works to motivate action. To the best of my knowledge, that wasn't happening in Kyrgystan.

I’m not much of a fan of "wisdom" lists. You read them like popcorn and feel smug about your increasing common sense.

However, this list of unsolicited advice is all about action: you won’t understand until you do.

" [N]ever forget this: your mind and your body and your heart are not charitable donations you need to spend the rest of your life being grateful for; they are the price the world has to pay you for dragging you into this life. The world doesn't own them. You do. "

Syed Saleem Shahzad offers a disturbing article in Asia Times.

" Asia Times Online has learned that […] Iraq-style resistance is to be activated in Afghanistan. "

One of Shazad's concerns is his understanding that there are cadres of non-Afghan fighters poised to carry out specific, targeted strikes.

Even if this does come to pass, I am inclined to doubt that it will be as destabilizing as the Iraqi resistance is. The Iraqis are fighting from a sesne of nationalism and they are willing to use foreign fighters to achieve their goals. The Taliban do not represent any national aspirations in Afghanistan and their use of foreign fighters was always loathed. Afghans also have their guns back.

Unfortunately, I could see this touching off a resurgence of warlordism, as local strongmen try to figure out where their interests lie.

When I'm travelling under the umbrella of a particular organization, I follow the dictates of their security - even when I think they're wrong. This can be frustrating, but, as they always err on the side of caution, it isn't any more than that.

Despite the ongoing general strike called by the Maoists and despite the bombs going off in various parts of the country, we are finally leaving Kathmandu tomorrow to head out to the Districts.

Cool.

Fear, Ennui and Doubt Underlie Calm in Nepal's Capital

Catchy headline, eh? True too.

" Only a few donors have suspended all aid. No British or Indian military aid has come since the emergency decree. The United States, which until recently trained and armed Nepal's military, says it is considering whether to continue. Britain has also suspended some aid. Bristling at what it calls foreign interference, the palace has suggested that it would look for aid elsewhere. It has repeatedly said that it would welcome help from China, though no public offers have come. Pakistan recently proposed increasing military aid, no doubt as a check on its rival, India. "

I don't think any donor has suspended all aid - yet. Most of the restrictions have been on military assitance and not development, though I know a few projects have been cancelled. This is actually a good bargaining tool because no matter what the palace says, Nepal can't actually get military aid from Pakistan or China. Why not? The last time Nepal tried, India closed the usually open border. With no fuel, the country ground to a halt.

I'm told The Times will be doing another story on Nepal on Tuesday, front page.

I am reminded that the Nepali Times is one of my favorite newspapers. Smart, funny, opinionated, and openly talking about the censorship here.

I’m watching Michigan State look a bit ugly against North Carolina. Live.

We’re invited for drinks by a guy who lives at our hotel. He introduces us to another consultant who has just arrived. The consultant hasn’t been to Kathmandu for thirteen years. We’re all chatting about hometowns and names. Suddenly, to my colleague, the consultant says, “your father was the dentist and you lived by the church”. Turns out they grew up in the same town.